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St. Johann in Tirol vs Söll — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
CANC
00:00
Söll
Söll
5/8/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Koasastadion St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

St. Johann in Tirol74%
×Draw14%
Söll12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Johann in Tirol
3.12
Söll
1.23

St. Johann in Tirol creates 154% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

St. Johann in Tirol
2.23
Söll
0.94

allows per match

St. Johann in Tirol
1.51
Söll
4.00

finishing

St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par
Söll+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Johann in Tirol ↓

Söll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

St. Johann in Tirol or draw
88%
St. Johann in Tirol or Söll
86%
Draw or Söll
26%

Winning margin

St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
54%
Söll wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
95%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
81%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
59%
Söll 1+ goals
71%
Söll 2+ goals
35%
Söll 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
86%
Söll (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Johann in Tirol at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

Söll away — creates 0.94, concedes 4.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Johann in Tirol attack 2.23 + Söll defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.12

Söll attack 0.94 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

St. Johann in Tirol scores more
74%
level
14%
Söll scores more
12%

St. Johann in Tirol at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Johann in Tirol vs Söll — Match Preview

St. Johann in Tirol face Söll on May 8, 2021 in this Landesliga - Tirol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Johann in Tirol host Söll at Koasastadion St. Johann.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.