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Söll vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
FT
1 – 3
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
10/2/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 10Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll20%
×Draw21%
St. Johann in Tirol59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.13
St. Johann in Tirol
2.08

St. Johann in Tirol creates 84% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 85 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Söll
2.27
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Söll or draw
41%
Söll or St. Johann in Tirol
79%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
80%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
8%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
68%
Söll 2+ goals
31%
Söll 3+ goals
11%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
87%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
61%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
25%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.13

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Söll scores more
20%
level
21%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
59%

St. Johann in Tirol at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Söll 1–3 St. Johann in Tirol

St. Johann in Tirol beat Söll 3-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 2, 2020.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll in Söll.