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St. Johann in Tirol vs Natters — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
FT
4 – 2
Natters
Natters
5/20/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 25Koasastadion St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

St. Johann in Tirol53%
×Draw21%
Natters27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Johann in Tirol
2.21
Natters
1.53

St. Johann in Tirol creates 44% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 44 away

creates per match

St. Johann in Tirol
2.23
Natters
1.55

allows per match

St. Johann in Tirol
1.51
Natters
2.18

finishing

St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par
Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Johann in Tirol ↓

Natters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

St. Johann in Tirol or draw
73%
St. Johann in Tirol or Natters
79%
Draw or Natters
47%

Winning margin

St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
32%
Natters wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
89%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
65%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
38%
Natters 1+ goals
78%
Natters 2+ goals
45%
Natters 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
66%
Natters (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Johann in Tirol at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Johann in Tirol attack 2.23 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.21

Natters attack 1.55 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Johann in Tirol scores more
53%
level
21%
Natters scores more
27%

St. Johann in Tirol at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: St. Johann in Tirol 4–2 Natters

St. Johann in Tirol beat Natters 4-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Koasastadion St. Johann in St. Johann in Tirol.