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Natters vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
FT
0 – 0
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
4/30/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 22Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Natters37%
×Draw22%
St. Johann in Tirol41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
1.77
St. Johann in Tirol
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 85 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Natters
1.84
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Natters or draw
59%
Natters or St. Johann in Tirol
78%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
63%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
19%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
83%
Natters 2+ goals
53%
Natters 3+ goals
26%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
84%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
55%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
48%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Natters scores more
37%
level
22%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
41%

St. Johann in Tirol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Natters vs St. Johann in Tirol

Natters and St. Johann in Tirol drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.