St. Johann in Tirol 2–1 Münster: Result & Stats

St. Johann in Tirol

FT

2 – 1

Münster

10/10/2021

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 13Koasastadion St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

St. Johann in Tirol58%

×Draw20%

Münster22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Johann in TirolExpected goals in this matchMünster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.34

St. Johann in Tirol

2.26

Münster

1.34

St. Johann in Tirol creates 69% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

2.23

creates per match

1.17

1.51

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

St. Johann in Tirol

2.23

Münster

1.17

allows per match

St. Johann in Tirol

1.51

Münster

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Johann in Tirol ↓

Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

St. Johann in Tirol or draw

78%

St. Johann in Tirol or Münster

80%

Draw or Münster

42%

Winning margin

St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+

36%

Münster wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals

89%

St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals

66%

St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals

39%

Münster 1+ goals

74%

Münster 2+ goals

39%

Münster 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)

72%

Münster (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Johann in Tirol at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

Münster away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Johann in Tirol attack 2.23 + Münster defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.26

Münster attack 1.17 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

St. Johann in Tirol scores more

58%

level

20%

Münster scores more

22%

St. Johann in Tirol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff