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Münster vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Münster
Münster
FT
2 – 0
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
6/11/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 29Sportplatz Münster

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Münster41%
×Draw22%
St. Johann in Tirol37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Münster
1.84
St. Johann in Tirol
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 85 away

creates per match

Münster
2.07
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Münster
1.63
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Münster+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Münster ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Münster or draw
63%
Münster or St. Johann in Tirol
78%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
59%

Winning margin

Münster wins by 2+
22%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Münster 1+ goals
84%
Münster 2+ goals
55%
Münster 3+ goals
28%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
83%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
52%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Münster (draw refunded)
52%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Münster at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Münster attack 2.07 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.84

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Münster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Münster scores more
41%
level
22%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
37%

Münster at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Münster vs St. Johann in Tirol

Münster beat St. Johann in Tirol 2-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Münster in Münster.