St. Jakob Rosental 0–0 ASK Klagenfurt

St. Jakob Rosental

FT

0 – 0

ASK Klagenfurt

7/30/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 2Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental38%

×Draw22%

ASK Klagenfurt40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Jakob RosentalExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.80

St. Jakob Rosental

1.74

ASK Klagenfurt

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

1.86

creates per match

1.94

1.67

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental

1.86

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental

1.67

ASK Klagenfurt

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw

60%

St. Jakob Rosental or ASK Klagenfurt

78%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

62%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+

19%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals

82%

St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals

52%

St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals

25%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

83%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

54%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)

48%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more

38%

level

22%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

40%

ASK Klagenfurt at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Jakob Rosental vs ASK Klagenfurt

St. Jakob Rosental and ASK Klagenfurt drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on July 30, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental in St. Jakob im Rosental.

St. Jakob Rosental vs ASK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: St. Jakob Rosental vs ASK Klagenfurt