Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ASK Klagenfurt vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
0 – 2
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
3/20/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 19ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt49%
×Draw22%
St. Jakob Rosental29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
1.94
St. Jakob Rosental
1.45

ASK Klagenfurt creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 76 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
2.33
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.39
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
71%
ASK Klagenfurt or St. Jakob Rosental
78%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
51%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
28%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
86%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
58%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
30%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
77%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
42%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
63%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 2.33 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
49%
level
22%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
29%

ASK Klagenfurt at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASK Klagenfurt 0 – 2 St. Jakob Rosental

St. Jakob Rosental beat ASK Klagenfurt 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.