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St. Jakob Rosental vs Admira Villach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
FT
3 – 0
Admira Villach
Admira Villach
3/15/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 18Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental62%
×Draw19%
Admira Villach19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Jakob Rosental
2.46
Admira Villach
1.30

St. Jakob Rosental creates 89% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.86
Admira Villach
0.94

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.67
Admira Villach
3.06

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par
Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

Admira Villach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw
81%
St. Jakob Rosental or Admira Villach
81%
Draw or Admira Villach
38%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
41%
Admira Villach wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
91%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
70%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
44%
Admira Villach 1+ goals
73%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
37%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
77%
Admira Villach (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.46

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more
62%
level
19%
Admira Villach scores more
19%

St. Jakob Rosental at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Jakob Rosental 3 – 0 Admira Villach

St. Jakob Rosental beat Admira Villach 3-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental in St. Jakob im Rosental.