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Admira Villach vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Admira Villach
Admira Villach
FT
1 – 5
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
7/24/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 1Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Admira Villach29%
×Draw22%
St. Jakob Rosental49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Villach
1.45
St. Jakob Rosental
1.96

St. Jakob Rosental creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Admira Villach
1.35
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

Admira Villach
2.41
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

Admira Villach+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Villach ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Admira Villach or draw
51%
Admira Villach or St. Jakob Rosental
78%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
71%

Winning margin

Admira Villach wins by 2+
13%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Admira Villach 1+ goals
77%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
42%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
18%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
86%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
58%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Admira Villach (draw refunded)
37%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Villach at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Villach attack 1.35 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + Admira Villach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Admira Villach scores more
29%
level
22%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
49%

St. Jakob Rosental at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Admira Villach vs St. Jakob Rosental

St. Jakob Rosental beat Admira Villach 5-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach in Villach.