St George Willawong vs Moreton City II — Queensland Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
St George Willawong62%
Moreton City II20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
St George Willawong creates 79% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over77
- Under23
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
St George Willawong ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
St George Willawong at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches
Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
St George Willawong attack 1.60 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.62
Moreton City II attack 1.36 + St George Willawong defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
St George Willawong at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "St George Willawong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Broadbeach United
Brisbane Strikers
SC Wanderers
Robina City
Ipswich
Caboolture
Redlands United
Holland Park Hawks
Logan Lightning
North StarSt George Willawong
CapalabaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
St George Willawong host Moreton City II on Sunday, 2 June 2024 at 06:45. The match is part of the Queensland Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Queensland Premier League: St George Willawong 2–0 Moreton City II
St George Willawong beat Moreton City II 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on June 2, 2024.
The match was played at St George's Park in Willawong.