Moreton City II 2–4 St George Willawong

Moreton City II

FT

2 – 4

St George Willawong

3/3/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 2Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II21%

×Draw19%

St George Willawong60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton City IIExpected goals in this matchSt George Willawong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.44

Moreton City II

1.38

St George Willawong

2.44

St George Willawong creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

1.09

creates per match

1.52

3.36

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Moreton City II

1.09

St George Willawong

1.52

allows per match

Moreton City II

3.36

St George Willawong

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par

St George Willawong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

St George Willawong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw

40%

Moreton City II or St George Willawong

81%

Draw or St George Willawong

79%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+

9%

St George Willawong wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals

75%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

40%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

16%

St George Willawong 1+ goals

91%

St George Willawong 2+ goals

70%

St George Willawong 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

26%

St George Willawong (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

St George Willawong away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + St George Willawong defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

St George Willawong attack 1.52 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Moreton City II scores more

21%

level

19%

St George Willawong scores more

60%

St George Willawong at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "St George Willawong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff