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St George Willawong vs Ipswich — Queensland Premier League 2026

St George Willawong
St George Willawong
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
5/26/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 12St George's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

St George Willawong42%
×Draw24%
Ipswich33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St George Willawong
1.58
Ipswich
1.37

St George Willawong creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

creates per match

St George Willawong
1.60
Ipswich
1.19

allows per match

St George Willawong
1.55
Ipswich
1.55

finishing

St George Willawong+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St George Willawong ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

St George Willawong or draw
67%
St George Willawong or Ipswich
76%
Draw or Ipswich
58%

Winning margin

St George Willawong wins by 2+
21%
Ipswich wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

St George Willawong 1+ goals
79%
St George Willawong 2+ goals
47%
St George Willawong 3+ goals
21%
Ipswich 1+ goals
75%
Ipswich 2+ goals
40%
Ipswich 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

St George Willawong (draw refunded)
56%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St George Willawong at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St George Willawong attack 1.60 + Ipswich defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ipswich attack 1.19 + St George Willawong defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St George Willawong scores more
42%
level
24%
Ipswich scores more
33%

St George Willawong at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St George Willawong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: St George Willawong 2–0 Ipswich

St George Willawong beat Ipswich 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at St George's Park in Willawong.