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Ipswich vs St George Willawong — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
0 – 3
St George Willawong
St George Willawong
2/23/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 1Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ipswich38%
×Draw24%
St George Willawong38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.53
St George Willawong
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.39
St George Willawong
1.52

allows per match

Ipswich
1.58
St George Willawong
1.67

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
St George Willawong+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

St George Willawong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
62%
Ipswich or St George Willawong
76%
Draw or St George Willawong
62%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
18%
St George Willawong wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
78%
Ipswich 2+ goals
45%
Ipswich 3+ goals
20%
St George Willawong 1+ goals
79%
St George Willawong 2+ goals
46%
St George Willawong 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
49%
St George Willawong (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

St George Willawong away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + St George Willawong defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

St George Willawong attack 1.52 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ipswich scores more
38%
level
24%
St George Willawong scores more
38%

Ipswich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs St George Willawong

St George Willawong beat Ipswich 3-0 in Queensland Premier League on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.