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St. George Saints vs Central Coast United — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

St. George Saints
St. George Saints
FT
4 – 4
Central Coast United
Central Coast United
4/29/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 13Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St. George Saints59%
×Draw20%
Central Coast United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. George Saints
2.30
Central Coast United
1.30

St. George Saints creates 77% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

St. George Saints
1.73
Central Coast United
1.40

allows per match

St. George Saints
1.21
Central Coast United
2.87

finishing

St. George Saints+0.00on par
Central Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. George Saints ↓

Central Coast United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

St. George Saints or draw
79%
St. George Saints or Central Coast United
80%
Draw or Central Coast United
41%

Winning margin

St. George Saints wins by 2+
38%
Central Coast United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

St. George Saints 1+ goals
90%
St. George Saints 2+ goals
67%
St. George Saints 3+ goals
40%
Central Coast United 1+ goals
73%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
37%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

St. George Saints (draw refunded)
74%
Central Coast United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. George Saints at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Central Coast United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. George Saints attack 1.73 + Central Coast United defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.30

Central Coast United attack 1.40 + St. George Saints defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

St. George Saints scores more
59%
level
20%
Central Coast United scores more
21%

St. George Saints at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St. George Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. George Saints vs Central Coast United

St. George Saints and Central Coast United drew 4-4 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.