St. George Saints 3–2 Blacktown City

St. George Saints

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Blacktown City

7/27/2025

New South Wales NPL · Round 25Saint George Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

St. George Saints32%

×Draw24%

Blacktown City44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. George SaintsExpected goals in this matchBlacktown City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.67

St. George Saints

1.40

Blacktown City

1.67

Blacktown City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 96 away

1.38

creates per match

1.67

1.68

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

St. George Saints

1.38

Blacktown City

1.67

allows per match

St. George Saints

1.68

Blacktown City

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. George Saints+0.00on par

Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. George Saints ↓

Blacktown City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

St. George Saints or draw

56%

St. George Saints or Blacktown City

76%

Draw or Blacktown City

68%

Winning margin

St. George Saints wins by 2+

15%

Blacktown City wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

St. George Saints 1+ goals

75%

St. George Saints 2+ goals

41%

St. George Saints 3+ goals

17%

Blacktown City 1+ goals

81%

Blacktown City 2+ goals

50%

Blacktown City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

St. George Saints (draw refunded)

42%

Blacktown City (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. George Saints at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.68 · 40 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. George Saints attack 1.38 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + St. George Saints defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St. George Saints scores more

32%

level

24%

Blacktown City scores more

44%

Blacktown City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff