Blacktown City 2–1 St. George Saints

Blacktown City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

St. George Saints

5/10/2026

New South Wales NPL · Round 14Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Blacktown City56%

×Draw22%

St. George Saints22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blacktown CityExpected goals in this matchSt. George Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.15

Blacktown City

1.95

St. George Saints

1.15

Blacktown City creates 70% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 43 away

1.92

creates per match

1.14

1.15

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Blacktown City

1.92

St. George Saints

1.14

allows per match

Blacktown City

1.15

St. George Saints

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par

St. George Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

St. George Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw

78%

Blacktown City or St. George Saints

78%

Draw or St. George Saints

44%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+

33%

St. George Saints wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals

86%

Blacktown City 2+ goals

58%

Blacktown City 3+ goals

31%

St. George Saints 1+ goals

68%

St. George Saints 2+ goals

32%

St. George Saints 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)

72%

St. George Saints (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

St. George Saints away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + St. George Saints defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.95

St. George Saints attack 1.14 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Blacktown City scores more

56%

level

22%

St. George Saints scores more

22%

Blacktown City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff