St. George Saints 2–2 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

St. George Saints

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

3/23/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 7Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

St. George Saints32%

×Draw23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. George SaintsExpected goals in this matchAPIA Leichhardt Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.82

St. George Saints

1.49

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.82

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 96 away

1.38

creates per match

1.96

1.68

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

St. George Saints

1.38

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.96

allows per match

St. George Saints

1.68

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. George Saints+0.00on par

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. George Saints ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

St. George Saints or draw

55%

St. George Saints or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

77%

Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

68%

Winning margin

St. George Saints wins by 2+

15%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

St. George Saints 1+ goals

77%

St. George Saints 2+ goals

44%

St. George Saints 3+ goals

19%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

84%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

54%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

St. George Saints (draw refunded)

41%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. George Saints at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.68 · 40 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. George Saints attack 1.38 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + St. George Saints defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St. George Saints scores more

32%

level

23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

45%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff