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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs St. George Saints — New South Wales NPL 2026

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
St. George Saints
St. George Saints
3/15/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 6Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers58%
×Draw21%
St. George Saints21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.02
St. George Saints
1.13

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 79% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 43 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.06
St. George Saints
1.14

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.12
St. George Saints
1.98

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
St. George Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

St. George Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
79%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or St. George Saints
79%
Draw or St. George Saints
42%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
35%
St. George Saints wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
87%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
60%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
33%
St. George Saints 1+ goals
68%
St. George Saints 2+ goals
31%
St. George Saints 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
73%
St. George Saints (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

St. George Saints away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + St. George Saints defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.02

St. George Saints attack 1.14 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
58%
level
21%
St. George Saints scores more
21%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3 – 3 St. George Saints

APIA Leichhardt Tigers and St. George Saints drew 3-3 in New South Wales NPL on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Lambert Park in Sydney.