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St George City FA vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

St George City FA
St George City FA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
M. McNulty 80', 45+1'
P. Mitry 21'
A. Mow 83'
H. Ryles 23'
5/3/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 13Penhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

St George City FA54%
×Draw22%
Central Coast II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St George City FA
1.90
Central Coast II
1.20

St George City FA creates 58% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 46 away

creates per match

St George City FA
1.64
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

St George City FA
1.40
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

St George City FA+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St George City FA ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St George City FA or draw
76%
St George City FA or Central Coast II
78%
Draw or Central Coast II
46%

Winning margin

St George City FA wins by 2+
31%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St George City FA 1+ goals
85%
St George City FA 2+ goals
56%
St George City FA 3+ goals
29%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
70%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
34%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

St George City FA (draw refunded)
69%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St George City FA at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St George City FA attack 1.64 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + St George City FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

St George City FA scores more
54%
level
22%
Central Coast II scores more
24%

St George City FA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "St George City FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
P. Mitry
23'
H. Ryles
45+1'
M. McNulty
80'
M. McNulty
83'
A. Mow

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St George City FA 0 – 2 Central Coast II

Central Coast II beat St George City FA 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on May 3, 2025.

Goals: P. Mitry (21'), H. Ryles (23'), M. McNulty (45+1', 80'), A. Mow (83').

The match was played at Penhurst Park in Sydney.