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Central Coast II vs St George City FA — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
St George City FA
St George City FA
N. Duarte 2'
J. Romero 31'
7/28/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 26Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II37%
×Draw24%
St George City FA39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.48
St George City FA
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 55 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
St George City FA
1.22

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
St George City FA
1.42

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
St George City FA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

St George City FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
61%
Central Coast II or St George City FA
76%
Draw or St George City FA
63%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
18%
St George City FA wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
43%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
19%
St George City FA 1+ goals
78%
St George City FA 2+ goals
45%
St George City FA 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
49%
St George City FA (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

St George City FA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + St George City FA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

St George City FA attack 1.22 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Coast II scores more
37%
level
24%
St George City FA scores more
39%

St George City FA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "St George City FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
N. Duarte
31'
J. Romero
71'
T. Ercan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Central Coast II 1–1 St George City FA

Central Coast II and St George City FA drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL on July 28, 2024.

Goals: N. Duarte (2'), J. Romero (31').

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.