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St George City FA vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

St George City FA
St George City FA
FT
2 – 2
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
7/30/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 21Penhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

St George City FA59%
×Draw20%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St George City FA
2.28
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

St George City FA creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

creates per match

St George City FA
2.58
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

St George City FA
1.32
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

St George City FA+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St George City FA ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St George City FA or draw
79%
St George City FA or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
80%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
41%

Winning margin

St George City FA wins by 2+
37%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

St George City FA 1+ goals
90%
St George City FA 2+ goals
66%
St George City FA 3+ goals
39%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
73%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
38%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

St George City FA (draw refunded)
73%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St George City FA at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St George City FA attack 2.58 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.28

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + St George City FA defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

St George City FA scores more
59%
level
20%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
21%

St George City FA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St George City FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: St George City FA 2–2 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

St George City FA and Bonnyrigg White Eagles drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Penhurst Park in Sydney.