Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1–2 St George City FA

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

FT

1 – 2

St George City FA

5/14/2022

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 10Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles29%

×Draw23%

St George City FA48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg White EaglesExpected goals in this matchSt George City FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.78

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.33

St George City FA

1.78

St George City FA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 20 away

1.57

creates per match

2.15

1.42

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.57

St George City FA

2.15

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.42

St George City FA

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

St George City FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

St George City FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw

52%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or St George City FA

77%

Draw or St George City FA

71%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

12%

St George City FA wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

74%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

38%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

15%

St George City FA 1+ goals

83%

St George City FA 2+ goals

53%

St George City FA 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

38%

St George City FA (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

St George City FA away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + St George City FA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

St George City FA attack 2.15 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

29%

level

23%

St George City FA scores more

48%

St George City FA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "St George City FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff