St George City FA vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 58+ matches
St George City FA37%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 58 home / 96 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
St George City FA ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
St George City FA at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches
APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
St George City FA attack 1.64 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62
APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + St George City FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Wollongong WolvesAPIA Leichhardt Tigers
Blacktown City
Sydney United
Marconi Stallions
Sydney Olympic
Mt Druitt Town
Sutherland Sharks
Manly United
Rockdale City Suns
Sydney II
Hakoah Sydney CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
St George City FA host APIA Leichhardt Tigers on Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 09:15. The match is part of the New South Wales NPL 2026/2027 season.
St George City FA 0 – 0 APIA Leichhardt Tigers
St George City FA and APIA Leichhardt Tigers drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on May 10, 2025.
The match was played at Penhurst Park in Sydney.