APIA Leichhardt Tigers 4–1 St George City FA

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

St George City FA

6/12/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 19Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers51%

×Draw24%

St George City FA26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APIA Leichhardt TigersExpected goals in this matchSt George City FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.17

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.74

St George City FA

1.17

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 55 away

2.06

creates per match

1.22

1.12

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2.06

St George City FA

1.22

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.12

St George City FA

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

St George City FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

St George City FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw

74%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or St George City FA

76%

Draw or St George City FA

49%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

28%

St George City FA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

82%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

52%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

25%

St George City FA 1+ goals

69%

St George City FA 2+ goals

33%

St George City FA 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

66%

St George City FA (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

St George City FA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + St George City FA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.74

St George City FA attack 1.22 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

51%

level

24%

St George City FA scores more

26%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff