Halmstad 2–1 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

G. Gudmundsson 82'

J. Oremo 13'

K. Sadat 81'

9/25/2018

Superettan · Round 24Örjans Vall (Halmstad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Halmstad53%

×Draw24%

Landskrona BoIS23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.06

Halmstad

1.72

Landskrona BoIS

1.06

Halmstad creates 62% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 98 away

1.80

creates per match

1.16

0.97

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Halmstad

1.80

Landskrona BoIS

1.16

allows per match

Halmstad

0.97

Landskrona BoIS

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

77%

Halmstad or Landskrona BoIS

76%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

47%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

29%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

82%

Halmstad 2+ goals

51%

Halmstad 3+ goals

25%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

65%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

29%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

69%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.80 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.72

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Halmstad defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Halmstad scores more

53%

level

24%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

23%

Halmstad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Oremo

62'

A. Mansour← A. Tkacz

68'

T. Boakye← I. Pekalski

79'

K. Jensen← F. Pivkovski

81'

K. Sadat

82'

G. Gudmundsson

85'

A. Hadenius← J. Oremo

89'

J. Andersson← Monday Samuel

90'

O. Pettersson← J. Svedberg

Halmstad

Landskrona

29

6

12

23

4

7

▼

Tkacz

17

▼

Samuel

8

Ekvall

22

Nalic

10

▼

Pivkovski

11

⚽

1

28

15

3

21

23

▼

Pekalski

8

Silfwer

10

⚽

Gudmundss

14

▼

Svedberg

9

⚽

▼

Oremo

20

Kinoshita

Manager: I. Krulj

68'▲T. Boakye←▼I. Pekalski

85'▲A. Hadenius←▼J. Oremo

90'▲O. Pettersson←▼J. Svedberg

Halmstad substitutes

2Boakye4Hadenius17Pettersson7Gunnlaugsson11Haraldsson18Wikström26Martler

Manager: J. Majgaard

62'▲A. Mansour←▼A. Tkacz

79'▲K. Jensen←▼F. Pivkovski

89'▲J. Andersson←▼Monday Samuel

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

19Mansour21Jensen18Andersson1Kaddoura15Zadran16Jönsson3Fakhouri