Landskrona BoIS 0–0 Halmstad: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Halmstad

5/23/2018

Superettan · Round 9Landskrona Idrottsplats (Landskrona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Landskrona BoIS34%

×Draw25%

Halmstad41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.47

Landskrona BoIS

1.31

Halmstad

1.47

Halmstad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 60 away

1.55

creates per match

1.73

1.21

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.55

Halmstad

1.73

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.21

Halmstad

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

59%

Landskrona BoIS or Halmstad

75%

Draw or Halmstad

66%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

15%

Halmstad wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

73%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

38%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

14%

Halmstad 1+ goals

77%

Halmstad 2+ goals

43%

Halmstad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

45%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.55 + Halmstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Halmstad attack 1.73 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

34%

level

25%

Halmstad scores more

41%

Halmstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

F. Pivkovski← B. Atajic

61'

T. Boakye← A. Bengtsson

71'

J. Svedberg← E. Wikström

78'

G. Stagova← Monday Samuel

88'

O. Pettersson← H. Gunnlaugsson

Landskrona

Halmstad

1

28

15

6

3

21

▼

Bengtsson

8

Silfwer

7

▼

Gunnlaugs

11

Haraldsso

18

▼

9

1

2

12

5

20

7

17

▼

Samuel

16

Olofsson

22

Nalic

9

▼

Atajic

11

Sadat

Manager: A. Sopi

61'▲F. Pivkovski←▼B. Atajic

78'▲G. Stagova←▼Monday Samuel

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

10Pivkovski14Stagova13Ekeh21Jensen29Noring28Okoli19Jönsson

Manager: I. Krulj

61'▲T. Boakye←▼A. Bengtsson

71'▲J. Svedberg←▼E. Wikström

88'▲O. Pettersson←▼H. Gunnlaugsson

Halmstad substitutes

2Boakye14Svedberg17Pettersson4Hadenius12Andersson19Wiedesheim-Paul30Rashidi