St. Gallen II 1–1 FC Chiasso: Result & Stats

St. Gallen II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Chiasso

9/3/2022

1. Liga Promotion · Round 5Stadion Espenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

St. Gallen II30%

×Draw23%

FC Chiasso47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Gallen IIExpected goals in this matchFC Chiasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.85

St. Gallen II

1.44

FC Chiasso

1.85

FC Chiasso creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

1.68

creates per match

1.65

2.06

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

St. Gallen II

1.68

FC Chiasso

1.65

allows per match

St. Gallen II

2.06

FC Chiasso

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

FC Chiasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw

53%

St. Gallen II or FC Chiasso

77%

Draw or FC Chiasso

70%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

14%

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

76%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

42%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

18%

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

84%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

55%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

39%

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Gallen II scores more

30%

level

23%

FC Chiasso scores more

47%

FC Chiasso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff