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FC Chiasso vs St. Gallen II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
CANC
16:45
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
3/11/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 22Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso54%
×Draw21%
St. Gallen II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
2.05
St. Gallen II
1.33

FC Chiasso creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
St. Gallen II
1.73

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
St. Gallen II
2.36

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
75%
FC Chiasso or St. Gallen II
79%
Draw or St. Gallen II
46%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
32%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
87%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
61%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
33%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
74%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
38%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
69%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.05

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
54%
level
21%
St. Gallen II scores more
25%

FC Chiasso at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Chiasso host St. Gallen II

March 11, 2023: FC Chiasso take on St. Gallen II in 1. Liga Promotion. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Chiasso host St. Gallen II at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.