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St. Gallen II vs Étoile Carouge — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
10/15/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 11Lidl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

St. Gallen II33%
×Draw23%
Étoile Carouge45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen II
1.54
Étoile Carouge
1.84

Étoile Carouge creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

St. Gallen II
1.68
Étoile Carouge
1.63

allows per match

St. Gallen II
2.06
Étoile Carouge
1.41

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par
Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Étoile Carouge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw
55%
St. Gallen II or Étoile Carouge
77%
Draw or Étoile Carouge
67%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+
15%
Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals
79%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
45%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
20%
Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
84%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
55%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
42%
Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Étoile Carouge attack 1.63 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St. Gallen II scores more
33%
level
23%
Étoile Carouge scores more
45%

Étoile Carouge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Gallen II vs Étoile Carouge

St. Gallen II beat Étoile Carouge 3-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Lidl Arena in Wil.