Étoile Carouge 5–1 St. Gallen II: Result & Stats

Étoile Carouge

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

St. Gallen II

5/25/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 34Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Étoile Carouge55%

×Draw20%

St. Gallen II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoile CarougeExpected goals in this matchSt. Gallen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.42

Étoile Carouge

2.21

St. Gallen II

1.42

Étoile Carouge creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 33 away

2.06

creates per match

1.73

1.11

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Étoile Carouge

2.06

St. Gallen II

1.73

allows per match

Étoile Carouge

1.11

St. Gallen II

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

St. Gallen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw

76%

Étoile Carouge or St. Gallen II

80%

Draw or St. Gallen II

45%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

34%

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

89%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

65%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

38%

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

76%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

41%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

69%

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.06 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.21

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more

55%

level

20%

St. Gallen II scores more

24%

Étoile Carouge at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff