Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Gallen II vs Cham — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cham
Cham
5/18/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 33Lidl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

St. Gallen II37%
×Draw22%
Cham41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen II
1.70
Cham
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

St. Gallen II
1.68
Cham
1.56

allows per match

St. Gallen II
2.06
Cham
1.72

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw
59%
St. Gallen II or Cham
78%
Draw or Cham
63%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+
18%
Cham wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals
82%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
51%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
24%
Cham 1+ goals
84%
Cham 2+ goals
54%
Cham 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
47%
Cham (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Cham away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Cham defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cham attack 1.56 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

St. Gallen II scores more
37%
level
22%
Cham scores more
41%

Cham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Gallen II vs Cham

St. Gallen II and Cham drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Lidl Arena in Wil.