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Cham vs St. Gallen II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Cham
Cham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
8/13/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Stadion Eizmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cham49%
×Draw21%
St. Gallen II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
2.15
St. Gallen II
1.64

Cham creates 31% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cham
1.95
St. Gallen II
1.73

allows per match

Cham
1.55
St. Gallen II
2.36

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cham or draw
70%
Cham or St. Gallen II
79%
Draw or St. Gallen II
51%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
29%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
88%
Cham 2+ goals
63%
Cham 3+ goals
36%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
81%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
49%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
62%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 105 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 1.95 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.15

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Cham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cham scores more
49%
level
21%
St. Gallen II scores more
30%

Cham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Cham 2–0 St. Gallen II

Cham beat St. Gallen II 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Eizmoos in Cham.