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St. Gallen II vs Breitenrain — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Breitenrain
Breitenrain
A. Krasniqi 75'
G. Figueiredo 52'
T. Frey 66'
M. Konopek 61', 28'
E. Briner 30'
N. G. Da Silva 8'
4/22/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 29Stadion Espenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

St. Gallen II39%
×Draw22%
Breitenrain39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen II
1.77
Breitenrain
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

St. Gallen II
1.68
Breitenrain
1.49

allows per match

St. Gallen II
2.06
Breitenrain
1.86

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par
Breitenrain+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Breitenrain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw
61%
St. Gallen II or Breitenrain
78%
Draw or Breitenrain
61%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+
20%
Breitenrain wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals
83%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
53%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
26%
Breitenrain 1+ goals
83%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
53%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
50%
Breitenrain (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Breitenrain away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Breitenrain defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Breitenrain attack 1.49 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

St. Gallen II scores more
39%
level
22%
Breitenrain scores more
39%

St. Gallen II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "St. Gallen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
N. G. Da Silva
16'
M. Hurter
28'
M. Konopek
30'
E. Briner
47'
N. Ndombasi← N. Ndombasi
47'
F. Schubert← A. Krasniqi
47'
S. Cicek← S. Cicek
52'
G. Figueiredo
59'
B. Gonzalez Gomez← B. Gonzalez Gomez
61'
M. Konopek
64'
E. Bytyqi← V. Spari
66'
T. Frey
74'
C. Schneuwly← C. Schneuwly
75'
A. Krasniqi
85'
M. Regillo← M. Regillo
85'
J. Nopper← J. Nopper

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: St. Gallen II 2–5 Breitenrain

Breitenrain beat St. Gallen II 5-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 22, 2023.

Goals: N. G. Da Silva (8'), M. Konopek (28', 61'), E. Briner (30'), G. Figueiredo (52'), T. Frey (66'), A. Krasniqi (75').

The match was played at Stadion Espenmoos in St. Gallen.