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Breitenrain vs St. Gallen II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
M. Hischier 77'
N. G. Da Silva 59'
M. Wenger 40'
F. van der Werff 75'
L. Rohner 62'
10/19/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 12Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Breitenrain51%
×Draw21%
St. Gallen II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
2.13
St. Gallen II
1.56

Breitenrain creates 37% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.89
St. Gallen II
1.73

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
St. Gallen II
2.36

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
72%
Breitenrain or St. Gallen II
79%
Draw or St. Gallen II
49%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
30%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
88%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
63%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
35%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
79%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
46%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
64%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.89 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.13

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Breitenrain scores more
51%
level
21%
St. Gallen II scores more
28%

Breitenrain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. Wenger
59'
N. G. Da Silva
62'
L. Rohner
66'
M. Hurter
72'
J. Helg← J. Helg
73'
F. Lymann← F. Lymann
74'
C. Schneuwly← C. Schneuwly
74'
J. Nopper← J. Nopper
75'
F. van der Werff
77'
M. Hischier
84'
F. Cavegn← A. Berisha
85'
S. Freiburghaus← S. Freiburghaus
90+1'
A. Ruegsegger← A. Ruegsegger
90+1'
L. Chatton← L. Chatton
90+3'
A. Ruegsegger

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Breitenrain 3–2 St. Gallen II

Breitenrain beat St. Gallen II 3-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 19, 2022.

Goals: M. Wenger (40'), N. G. Da Silva (59'), L. Rohner (62'), F. van der Werff (75'), M. Hischier (77').

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.