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St. Gallen II vs Bavois — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bavois
Bavois
11/4/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 15Lidl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

St. Gallen II38%
×Draw23%
Bavois40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen II
1.71
Bavois
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 105 away

creates per match

St. Gallen II
1.68
Bavois
1.44

allows per match

St. Gallen II
2.06
Bavois
1.75

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par
Bavois+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Bavois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw
60%
St. Gallen II or Bavois
77%
Draw or Bavois
62%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+
19%
Bavois wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals
82%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
51%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
24%
Bavois 1+ goals
83%
Bavois 2+ goals
52%
Bavois 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
49%
Bavois (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Bavois away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Bavois defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bavois attack 1.44 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

St. Gallen II scores more
38%
level
23%
Bavois scores more
40%

Bavois at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: St. Gallen II 1–1 Bavois

St. Gallen II and Bavois drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Lidl Arena in Wil.