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Bavois vs St. Gallen II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bavois
Bavois
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
5/11/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 32Stade des Peupliers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bavois47%
×Draw22%
St. Gallen II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavois
1.99
St. Gallen II
1.61

Bavois creates 24% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 33 away

creates per match

Bavois
1.63
St. Gallen II
1.73

allows per match

Bavois
1.49
St. Gallen II
2.36

finishing

Bavois+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavois ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bavois or draw
68%
Bavois or St. Gallen II
78%
Draw or St. Gallen II
53%

Winning margin

Bavois wins by 2+
26%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bavois 1+ goals
86%
Bavois 2+ goals
59%
Bavois 3+ goals
32%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
80%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
48%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bavois (draw refunded)
60%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavois attack 1.63 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.99

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Bavois defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bavois scores more
47%
level
22%
St. Gallen II scores more
32%

Bavois at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bavois vs St. Gallen II

St. Gallen II beat Bavois 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Peupliers in Bavois.