St. Gallen II 1–3 Basel II: Result & Stats

St. Gallen II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Basel II

8/20/2022

1. Liga Promotion · Round 3Stadion Espenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

St. Gallen II36%

×Draw22%

Basel II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Gallen IIExpected goals in this matchBasel II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.88

St. Gallen II

1.71

Basel II

1.88

Basel II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 106 away

1.68

creates per match

1.70

2.06

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

St. Gallen II

1.68

Basel II

1.70

allows per match

St. Gallen II

2.06

Basel II

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Basel II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw

58%

St. Gallen II or Basel II

78%

Draw or Basel II

64%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

18%

Basel II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

82%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

51%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

24%

Basel II 1+ goals

85%

Basel II 2+ goals

56%

Basel II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

46%

Basel II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Basel II attack 1.70 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Gallen II scores more

36%

level

22%

Basel II scores more

42%

Basel II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff