Basel II 2–7 St. Gallen II: Result & Stats

Basel II

FT

2 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

St. Gallen II

2/25/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 20Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Basel II47%

×Draw21%

St. Gallen II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel IIExpected goals in this matchSt. Gallen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.73

Basel II

2.13

St. Gallen II

1.73

Basel II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 33 away

1.90

creates per match

1.73

1.74

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Basel II

1.90

St. Gallen II

1.73

allows per match

Basel II

1.74

St. Gallen II

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

St. Gallen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Basel II or draw

68%

Basel II or St. Gallen II

79%

Draw or St. Gallen II

53%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+

27%

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals

88%

Basel II 2+ goals

63%

Basel II 3+ goals

35%

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

82%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

52%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)

60%

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.13

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Basel II scores more

47%

level

21%

St. Gallen II scores more

32%

Basel II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff