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St. Croix vs Manitoba — USL League Two 2018

St. Croix
St. Croix
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Manitoba
Manitoba
7/1/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 13Stillwater High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

St. Croix37%
×Draw22%
Manitoba41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Croix
1.72
Manitoba
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

creates per match

St. Croix
1.77
Manitoba
1.75

allows per match

St. Croix
1.90
Manitoba
1.67

finishing

St. Croix+0.00on par
Manitoba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Croix ↓

Manitoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Croix or draw
59%
St. Croix or Manitoba
78%
Draw or Manitoba
63%

Winning margin

St. Croix wins by 2+
19%
Manitoba wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

St. Croix 1+ goals
82%
St. Croix 2+ goals
51%
St. Croix 3+ goals
25%
Manitoba 1+ goals
84%
Manitoba 2+ goals
54%
Manitoba 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

St. Croix (draw refunded)
47%
Manitoba (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Croix at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

Manitoba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Croix attack 1.77 + Manitoba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Manitoba attack 1.75 + St. Croix defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

St. Croix scores more
37%
level
22%
Manitoba scores more
41%

Manitoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: St. Croix 1–2 Manitoba

Manitoba beat St. Croix 2-1 in USL League Two on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stillwater High School in Stillwater, Minnesota.