Manitoba 1–2 St. Croix: Result & Stats

Manitoba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

St. Croix

6/23/2022

USL League Two · Round 46Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba50%

×Draw22%

St. Croix28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManitobaExpected goals in this matchSt. Croix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.46

Manitoba

1.99

St. Croix

1.46

Manitoba creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 29 away

1.73

creates per match

1.38

1.55

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Manitoba

1.73

St. Croix

1.38

allows per match

Manitoba

1.55

St. Croix

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par

St. Croix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

St. Croix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw

72%

Manitoba or St. Croix

78%

Draw or St. Croix

50%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+

29%

St. Croix wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals

86%

Manitoba 2+ goals

59%

Manitoba 3+ goals

32%

St. Croix 1+ goals

77%

St. Croix 2+ goals

43%

St. Croix 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)

64%

St. Croix (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

St. Croix away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + St. Croix defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.99

St. Croix attack 1.38 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manitoba scores more

50%

level

22%

St. Croix scores more

28%

Manitoba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff