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St. Charles vs River Light — USL League Two 2018

St. Charles
St. Charles
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
River Light
River Light
6/13/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 8Lutheran High School St. Charles Foot Ball Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

St. Charles47%
×Draw20%
River Light33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Charles
2.32
River Light
1.93

St. Charles creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

St. Charles
2.58
River Light
1.94

allows per match

St. Charles
1.92
River Light
2.06

finishing

St. Charles+0.00on par
River Light+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Charles ↓

River Light →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

St. Charles or draw
67%
St. Charles or River Light
80%
Draw or River Light
53%

Winning margin

St. Charles wins by 2+
28%
River Light wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

St. Charles 1+ goals
90%
St. Charles 2+ goals
67%
St. Charles 3+ goals
40%
River Light 1+ goals
85%
River Light 2+ goals
57%
River Light 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

St. Charles (draw refunded)
59%
River Light (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Charles at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

River Light away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Charles attack 2.58 + River Light defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.32

River Light attack 1.94 + St. Charles defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Charles scores more
47%
level
20%
River Light scores more
33%

St. Charles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Charles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Charles 3 – 3 River Light

St. Charles and River Light drew 3-3 in USL League Two on June 13, 2024.

The match was played at Lutheran High School St. Charles Foot Ball Field in St. Peters, Missouri.