River Light 3–3 St. Charles: Result & Stats

River Light

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

St. Charles

5/26/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 4Spartan Athletic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

River Light42%

×Draw20%

St. Charles38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River LightExpected goals in this matchSt. Charles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

2.12

River Light

2.23

St. Charles

2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

2.12

creates per match

2.42

1.82

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

River Light

2.12

St. Charles

2.42

allows per match

River Light

1.82

St. Charles

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Light+0.00on par

St. Charles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Light ↓

St. Charles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

River Light or draw

62%

River Light or St. Charles

80%

Draw or St. Charles

58%

Winning margin

River Light wins by 2+

24%

St. Charles wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

River Light 1+ goals

89%

River Light 2+ goals

65%

River Light 3+ goals

38%

St. Charles 1+ goals

88%

St. Charles 2+ goals

62%

St. Charles 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

River Light (draw refunded)

52%

St. Charles (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Light at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

St. Charles away — creates 2.42, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Light attack 2.12 + St. Charles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

St. Charles attack 2.42 + River Light defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

River Light scores more

42%

level

20%

St. Charles scores more

38%

River Light at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "River Light will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff