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St. Andrew Lions vs Silver Sands — Premier League 2019

St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
CANC
20:00
Silver Sands
Silver Sands
6/14/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

St. Andrew Lions53%
×Draw19%
Silver Sands28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrew Lions
2.54
Silver Sands
1.85

St. Andrew Lions creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions
1.61
Silver Sands
0.83

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions
2.87
Silver Sands
3.48

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par
Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Silver Sands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw
72%
St. Andrew Lions or Silver Sands
81%
Draw or Silver Sands
47%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
33%
Silver Sands wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
92%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
72%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
46%
Silver Sands 1+ goals
84%
Silver Sands 2+ goals
55%
Silver Sands 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
65%
Silver Sands (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.61 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.54

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more
53%
level
19%
Silver Sands scores more
28%

St. Andrew Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Andrew Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: St. Andrew Lions host Silver Sands

June 14, 2020: St. Andrew Lions take on Silver Sands in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

St. Andrew Lions host Silver Sands at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.