St. Andrew Lions 1–1 Brittons Hill: Result & Stats

St. Andrew Lions

FT

1 – 1

Brittons Hill

5/9/2023

Premier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

St. Andrew Lions20%

×Draw18%

Brittons Hill62%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Andrew LionsExpected goals in this matchBrittons Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.67

St. Andrew Lions

1.50

Brittons Hill

2.67

Brittons Hill creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.36

creates per match

2.05

3.29

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions

1.36

Brittons Hill

2.05

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions

3.29

Brittons Hill

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Brittons Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw

38%

St. Andrew Lions or Brittons Hill

82%

Draw or Brittons Hill

80%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+

9%

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals

78%

St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals

44%

St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals

19%

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

93%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

74%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)

25%

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.36, concedes 3.29 · 14 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.36 + Brittons Hill defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Brittons Hill attack 2.05 + St. Andrew Lions defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more

20%

level

18%

Brittons Hill scores more

62%

Brittons Hill at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff