Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brittons Hill vs St. Andrew Lions — Premier League 2024

Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
FT
2 – 1
St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
8/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brittons Hill78%
×Draw13%
St. Andrew Lions9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brittons Hill
3.16
St. Andrew Lions
1.05

Brittons Hill creates 201% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Brittons Hill
2.53
St. Andrew Lions
1.00

allows per match

Brittons Hill
1.10
St. Andrew Lions
3.79

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par
St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

St. Andrew Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw
91%
Brittons Hill or St. Andrew Lions
87%
Draw or St. Andrew Lions
22%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+
59%
St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals
96%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
82%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
59%
St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
65%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
28%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
89%
St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.53 + St. Andrew Lions defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 3.16

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.00 + Brittons Hill defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Brittons Hill scores more
78%
level
13%
St. Andrew Lions scores more
9%

Brittons Hill at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brittons Hill vs St. Andrew Lions

Brittons Hill beat St. Andrew Lions 2-1 in Premier League on August 17, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.