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St. Andrew Lions vs Bagatelle — Premier League 2026

St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bagatelle
Bagatelle
1/18/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

St. Andrew Lions27%
×Draw21%
Bagatelle51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrew Lions
1.48
Bagatelle
2.09

Bagatelle creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions
1.20
Bagatelle
1.08

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions
3.10
Bagatelle
1.75

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par
Bagatelle+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Bagatelle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw
49%
St. Andrew Lions or Bagatelle
79%
Draw or Bagatelle
73%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
12%
Bagatelle wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
77%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
43%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
19%
Bagatelle 1+ goals
88%
Bagatelle 2+ goals
62%
Bagatelle 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
35%
Bagatelle (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

Bagatelle away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.20 + Bagatelle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bagatelle attack 1.08 + St. Andrew Lions defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more
27%
level
21%
Bagatelle scores more
51%

Bagatelle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bagatelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Andrew Lions vs Bagatelle

Bagatelle beat St. Andrew Lions 2-1 in Premier League on January 18, 2026.