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Bagatelle vs St. Andrew Lions — Premier League 2026

Bagatelle
Bagatelle
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
4/8/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bagatelle67%
×Draw17%
St. Andrew Lions15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bagatelle
2.59
St. Andrew Lions
1.17

Bagatelle creates 121% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bagatelle
0.88
St. Andrew Lions
0.70

allows per match

Bagatelle
1.63
St. Andrew Lions
4.30

finishing

Bagatelle+0.00on par
St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bagatelle ↓

St. Andrew Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bagatelle or draw
85%
Bagatelle or St. Andrew Lions
83%
Draw or St. Andrew Lions
33%

Winning margin

Bagatelle wins by 2+
46%
St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bagatelle 1+ goals
92%
Bagatelle 2+ goals
73%
Bagatelle 3+ goals
47%
St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
69%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
33%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bagatelle (draw refunded)
81%
St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bagatelle at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bagatelle attack 0.88 + St. Andrew Lions defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 2.59

St. Andrew Lions attack 0.70 + Bagatelle defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bagatelle scores more
67%
level
17%
St. Andrew Lions scores more
15%

Bagatelle at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bagatelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bagatelle 4–1 St. Andrew Lions

Bagatelle beat St. Andrew Lions 4-1 in Premier League on April 8, 2026.