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St. Andrä vs Dellach im Gailtal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Andrä
St. Andrä
FT
2 – 1
Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
4/16/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Andrä30%
×Draw21%
Dellach im Gailtal48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrä
1.59
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

Dellach im Gailtal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

creates per match

St. Andrä
1.36
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

allows per match

St. Andrä
2.06
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

finishing

St. Andrä+0.00on par
Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrä ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

St. Andrä or draw
52%
St. Andrä or Dellach im Gailtal
79%
Draw or Dellach im Gailtal
70%

Winning margin

St. Andrä wins by 2+
14%
Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

St. Andrä 1+ goals
80%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
47%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
21%
Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
87%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
61%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

St. Andrä (draw refunded)
38%
Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrä at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrä attack 1.36 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + St. Andrä defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Andrä scores more
30%
level
21%
Dellach im Gailtal scores more
48%

Dellach im Gailtal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: St. Andrä 2–1 Dellach im Gailtal

St. Andrä beat Dellach im Gailtal 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.