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Dellach im Gailtal vs St. Andrä — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
FT
4 – 0
St. Andrä
St. Andrä
8/20/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 6Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dellach im Gailtal60%
×Draw19%
St. Andrä21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dellach im Gailtal
2.46
St. Andrä
1.39

Dellach im Gailtal creates 77% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dellach im Gailtal
2.65
St. Andrä
1.33

allows per match

Dellach im Gailtal
1.45
St. Andrä
2.27

finishing

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par
St. Andrä+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dellach im Gailtal ↓

St. Andrä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dellach im Gailtal or draw
79%
Dellach im Gailtal or St. Andrä
81%
Draw or St. Andrä
40%

Winning margin

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
39%
St. Andrä wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
91%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
70%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
44%
St. Andrä 1+ goals
75%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
40%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
74%
St. Andrä (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dellach im Gailtal at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

St. Andrä away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.65 + St. Andrä defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.46

St. Andrä attack 1.33 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dellach im Gailtal scores more
60%
level
19%
St. Andrä scores more
21%

Dellach im Gailtal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dellach im Gailtal 4 – 0 St. Andrä

Dellach im Gailtal beat St. Andrä 4-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail in Dellach/Gail.